Circumcision will halve HIV rates over decades

From the September 2008 issue of Positive Living • By David Menadue

Numerous presentations at IAS 2008 referred to the value of circumcision in reducing the incidence of HIV. Mathematical modelling by Richard White from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine suggested that tripling the rate of circumcision in a country with largely heterosexually acquired HIV and a current rate of 25% circumcision would eventually halve HIV incidence. However, it would take 50 years for that 75% rate to reach its full effectiveness and it would require circumcision of the majority of sexually active men (15-45). White saw little value in including HIV-positive men in such a program. He warned though that if behavioural change was to occur with a drop of 20% in condom use in casual and commercial sex in those countries, this would wipe out the benefit of circumcision.

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This article was first published in September 2008.

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