NAPWA

A new HIV mathematical modelling report released by the National Centre in HIV EpidemiologyThe branch of medical science that deals with the study of incidence and distribution and control of a disease in a population. and ClinicalPertaining to or founded on observation and treatment of participants, as distinguished from theoretical or basic science. Research (NCHECRNational Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research. Based at the University of NSW in Sydney, NCHECR is one of Australia's leading medical research centres and is recognised internationally as a leader in the field of research into HIV/AIDS and viral hepatitis. ) has raised concerns about the possibility of future rises in HIV infection rates in the next seven years if current trends continue. The report author, David Wilson arrives at mathematical predictions suggesting that HIV infection will increase in Victoria by 73.5% by 2015, with a moderate increase of 20% for Queensland over the same period. On the other hand, it suggests that NSW could see a slight decrease in HIV infection rates.

Findings from the report concluded that promoting condom useage remains the most effective intervention for interrupting HIV transmission. The importance of heightened surveillance and targeting other STIs[Sexually Transmissible (or Transmitted) Infection] Infections spread by the transfer of organisms from person to person during sexual contact. Also called venereal disease (VD) (an older public health term) or sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). was also seen as important and needing further consideration.

NAWPA participated as a member of the Project Steering Committee and has provided suggestions and advice on the reports findings, including a range of factors that NAPWA feels warrant further discussion and may not have been fully considered within the body of the report, especially in regards to opportunities available now to avert such projections becoming real.

Source: UNSW/NCHECR March 3, 2008